Burma ‘on the brink of a Humanitarian Crisis’; Civil War Possible

A Burmese NGO activist is asking questions during the Questions & Answers session.

Mr. Oo expressed hope that UN Special Envoy to Burma Ibrahim Gambari’s meetings with ASEAN ministers and heads of states would some how accelerate the process of putting unified pressure on what he called a “rogue regime” to stop the “unprecedented terror” and to start talking with its opposition. But that surely will take some time. The current crisis has severely affected the average citizens that it seems the more pressing matter now is to alleviate the poverty of the Burmese. “Burma is facing either a slow death or a sudden death,” said Mr. Zaw Oo. “The Burmese economy is facing a serious stagnation and hyperinflation. This kind of economy cannot be stabilised at the point of a gun.”

The speakers at the seminar shared the view that the possibility of a civil war remains even if Burma has eventually adopted a democratic constitution. “Civil war is likely if the majority of the Burmans cannot come to terms with the ethnic groups,” said Mr. Jagan, a freelance journalist and one of the five speakers. The Burmans are the largest ethnic group in Myanmar. The term is used to differentiate between the majority of Burmese people and the armed ethnic groups that operate like small states within a bigger state. Mr. Jagan added that none of the armed ethnic groups he had talked to agreed to lay down their arms to become part of an integrated Burma.

Burma now comprises several ethnic armed groups that have their own army, culture and language. “They fear the Burmans will take away their resources, their rights, their cultural identity,” freelance journalist Brian McCartan said. “They fear they will become second-class citizens. They don’t trust the junta.” There are several good reasons for them not to trust the junta, but especially because they were forced to meet some preconditions in order to join the constitution-drafting National Convention. When some of them managed to get in and air their views, their suggestions were thrown out, Mr. McCartan said. “Even if Burma does become a democratic country, there is no guarantee that these ethnic groups will receive a fair share of power and resources.”

Mr. Aung Zaw, editor of the Irrawaddy magazine, called for punitive actions such as trade sanctions from Burma’s neighbours such as India, China, Russia and Thailand. “Burma is surrounded by opportunistic neighbours. If we want to see changes in Burma, these countries will have to take drastic actions on Burma.” He added that the ASEAN made the mistake of allowing Burma to join the regional bloc in the first place. “After 10 years, it can be too late to kick it [Burma] out,” he said. Despite being an ASEAN member, Burma disregarded repeated calls from other members to stop violent crackdowns on protestors and to hold talks with Ms. Suu Kyi’s party and her National League for Democracy party whose landslide election victory in 1990 was overturned by the military.

Mr. Aung Zaw defended Buddhist monks’ participation in the nationwide protests against the junta. Government officers have arrested, beaten and forced monks to disrobe. They have even killed some of the detained monks. “Monks cannot stay away from the problem. They are part of our society,” Mr. Zaw said. “They know what’s inside every household, every kitchen. They know how people are suffering.”

The speakers ended the seminar on a positive note. Mr. Kraisak, who is also a member of the Democrat Party, said: “The freedom struggle in Burma has brought us [Burmese and Thai peoples] together. I have never seen any single conflict that has produced as many NGOs as the Burmese conflict.” He noted that the arrests and killings of monks and civilians have eventually inspired a change in Thailand’s attitude toward Myanmar. “It’s been the first time I heard a Thai prime minister say that what the [Burmese] junta does is ‘unacceptable’,” he said, referring to the recent remark by Thai Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont. So far, it seems Thailand’s relationship with Burma is based largely on business interests, especially natural gas deals. But Mr. Kraisak hopes that will change when the new elected government takes over. “We can buy gas from other neighboring countries,’ he said.

Mr. Jagan, a former BBC correspondent and Bangkok Post subeditor, said: “Thailand serves as a good case for Burma. They should be able to see that there is nothing to fear about becoming democratic.” The Thai military staged a bloodless coup in September 2006 and appointed a retired general as prime minister. Gen. Surayud is widely respected, though not so popular as an economic manager. His military-installed government plans to hold a general election in December 2007, a democratic move that receives kudos from both the media and the public.

Contrary to what most people might think, Mr. Jagan said Ms. Suu Kyi is open to negotiation talks with the junta, and the junta leaders he had talked to acknowledged the need for them to change to survive. Right now, the junta has no foreign policies “other than to stay in power,” Mr. Jagan said. But he noted that “One colonel told me ‘Larry, 80% of the colonels support Aung San Suu Kyi but they don’t tell each other because if they do they will end up like [deposed PM] Khin Nyunt’.”

Mr. Zaw Oo pins the hope on the junta eventually agreeing to have a serious political reconciliation talk with the opposition. However, far-fetched it seems, it appears to be the only hope. “[Junta’s most powerful general] Than Shwe is facing internal and external pressure. Aung San Suu Kyi is his only hope left,” he said. “You never know, human miracles can happen. What we need is a good mediator.”

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